A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
